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Munkács vs Karpaty — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Munkács
Munkács
CANC
14:00
Karpaty
Karpaty
5/21/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 30Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Munkács40%
×Draw26%
Karpaty35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Munkács
1.42
Karpaty
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Munkács
1.50
Karpaty
1.43

allows per match

Munkács
1.20
Karpaty
1.33

finishing

Munkács+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Munkács ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Munkács or draw
65%
Munkács or Karpaty
74%
Draw or Karpaty
60%

Winning margin

Munkács wins by 2+
19%
Karpaty wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Munkács 1+ goals
76%
Munkács 2+ goals
41%
Munkács 3+ goals
17%
Karpaty 1+ goals
73%
Karpaty 2+ goals
38%
Karpaty 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Munkács (draw refunded)
53%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Munkács at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Munkács attack 1.50 + Karpaty defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Karpaty attack 1.43 + Munkács defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Munkács scores more
40%
level
26%
Karpaty scores more
35%

Munkács at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Munkács will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Munkács face Karpaty (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Munkács hosting Karpaty. Match starts May 21, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Munkács host Karpaty at Stadion Avanhard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.