Karpaty 1–0 Munkács: Result & Stats

Karpaty

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Munkács

D. Kozhanov 28' (pen)

10/23/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 15Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Karpaty40%

×Draw25%

Munkács35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarpatyExpected goals in this matchMunkács

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.42

Karpaty

1.52

Munkács

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.71

creates per match

1.22

1.62

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Karpaty

1.71

Munkács

1.22

allows per match

Karpaty

1.62

Munkács

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par

Munkács+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Munkács →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw

65%

Karpaty or Munkács

75%

Draw or Munkács

60%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+

19%

Munkács wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals

78%

Karpaty 2+ goals

45%

Karpaty 3+ goals

20%

Munkács 1+ goals

76%

Munkács 2+ goals

41%

Munkács 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)

53%

Munkács (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Munkács away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.71 + Munkács defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Munkács attack 1.22 + Karpaty defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karpaty scores more

40%

level

25%

Munkács scores more

35%

Karpaty at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

D. KozhanovPenalty

44'

O. Dudarenko← D. Galenkov

60'

Y. Budnik← M. Gumenyuk

67'

O. Pishchur← L. Stepanchuk

68'

V. Luchka← T. Galas

81'

V. Faraseenko← N. Grytsak

81'

M. Bundash← D. Volkov

90'

I. Povalii← D. Kozhanov

Karpaty

Munkács

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Tlumak

44'▲O. Dudarenko←▼D. Galenkov

60'▲Y. Budnik←▼M. Gumenyuk

90'▲I. Povalii←▼D. Kozhanov

Karpaty substitutes

DudarenkoBudnikPovalii

Manager: V. Shumskyi

67'▲O. Pishchur←▼L. Stepanchuk

68'▲V. Luchka←▼T. Galas

81'▲V. Faraseenko←▼N. Grytsak

81'▲M. Bundash←▼D. Volkov

Munkács substitutes

PishchurLuchkaFaraseenkoBundash