Municipal 3–1 Cobán Imperial: Result & Stats

Municipal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cobán Imperial

Y. Matos 51'

R. Barrientos 23'

J. Martinez 5'

U. Amaral 63'

10/12/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 14Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Municipal59%

×Draw24%

Cobán Imperial17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MunicipalExpected goals in this matchCobán Imperial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.80

Municipal

1.72

Cobán Imperial

0.80

Municipal creates 115% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 142 away

2.03

creates per match

0.89

0.72

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Municipal

2.03

Cobán Imperial

0.89

allows per match

Municipal

0.72

Cobán Imperial

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal+0.00on par

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal ↓

Cobán Imperial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Municipal or draw

83%

Municipal or Cobán Imperial

76%

Draw or Cobán Imperial

41%

Winning margin

Municipal wins by 2+

33%

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Municipal 1+ goals

82%

Municipal 2+ goals

51%

Municipal 3+ goals

25%

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals

55%

Cobán Imperial 2+ goals

19%

Cobán Imperial 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Municipal (draw refunded)

78%

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.72 · 178 matches

Cobán Imperial away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.41 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal attack 2.03 + Cobán Imperial defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.72

Cobán Imperial attack 0.89 + Municipal defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Municipal scores more

59%

level

24%

Cobán Imperial scores more

17%

Municipal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

20'

23'

46'

46'

51'

59'

63'

64'

64'

64'

64'

67'

M. Rotondi← U. Amaral

70'

R. Barrientos

70'

Y. Baltazar← J. Mendez

70'

E. Hernandez← J. Martinez

79'

D. Contreras← Y. Matos

82'

E. Rivas← E. Soto

85'

D. Torres← J. Bantes

Municipal

Cobán

55

Casas

30

▼

Soto

16

▼

6

4

21

24

14

28

9

⚽

▼

Amaral

8

▼

1

6

3

13

52

43

26

⚽

Barriento

92

▼

Mendez

5

⚽

▼

Matos

11

▼

Bantes

9

⚽

▼

Martinez

Manager: S. Bini

70'▲Y. Baltazar←▼J. Mendez

70'▲E. Hernandez←▼J. Martinez

79'▲D. Contreras←▼Y. Matos

85'▲D. Torres←▼J. Bantes

Municipal substitutes

22Aldana14Torres2GaitanArias21Baltazar55Hernandez25Contreras99Cardenas31Calderon

Manager: R. Montoya

46'▲S. Paredes←▼S. Teni

46'▲O. Mejia←▼Y. Alvarez

67'▲M. Rotondi←▼U. Amaral

82'▲E. Rivas←▼E. Soto

Cobán Imperial substitutes

33Ayala92Rivas77Winter22Aldana15Flores20Paredes11Rotondi19Estrada7Mejia