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Cobán Imperial vs Municipal — Liga Nacional 2026

Cobán Imperial
Cobán Imperial
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Municipal
Municipal
B. Lemus 55'
J. Winter 23'
A. David 61'
4/27/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 22Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Cobán Imperial42%
×Draw29%
Municipal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobán Imperial
1.22
Municipal
0.95

Cobán Imperial creates 28% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 181 away

creates per match

Cobán Imperial
1.50
Municipal
1.10

allows per match

Cobán Imperial
0.80
Municipal
0.94

finishing

Cobán Imperial+0.00on par
Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobán Imperial ↓

Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cobán Imperial or draw
71%
Cobán Imperial or Municipal
71%
Draw or Municipal
58%

Winning margin

Cobán Imperial wins by 2+
19%
Municipal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cobán Imperial 1+ goals
70%
Cobán Imperial 2+ goals
34%
Cobán Imperial 3+ goals
12%
Municipal 1+ goals
61%
Municipal 2+ goals
25%
Municipal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)
60%
Municipal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobán Imperial at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 143 matches

Municipal away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 181 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobán Imperial attack 1.50 + Municipal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Municipal attack 1.10 + Cobán Imperial defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cobán Imperial scores more
42%
level
29%
Municipal scores more
29%

Cobán Imperial at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cobán Imperial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
J. Winter
31'
D. Contreras
40'
47'
55'
B. Lemus
61'
A. David
68'
R. Saravia
83'
Cobán
Municipal
R. Montoya
Manager: R. Montoya
S. Bini
Manager: S. Bini

Liga Nacional: Cobán Imperial 2–1 Municipal

Cobán Imperial beat Municipal 2-1 in Liga Nacional on April 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Winter (23'), B. Lemus (55'), A. David (61').

The match was played at Estadio Verapaz Jose Angel Rossi in Cobán.