Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Municipal San Ramón vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Municipal San Ramón
Municipal San Ramón
FT
1 – 2
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
J. Perez 51'
E. Sandoval 72' (pen), 55'
9/6/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 1Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Municipal San Ramón47%
×Draw26%
Cariari Pococi27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal San Ramón
1.49
Cariari Pococi
1.07

Municipal San Ramón creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Municipal San Ramón
1.18
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Municipal San Ramón
0.91
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Municipal San Ramón+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal San Ramón ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Municipal San Ramón or draw
73%
Municipal San Ramón or Cariari Pococi
74%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
53%

Winning margin

Municipal San Ramón wins by 2+
23%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Municipal San Ramón 1+ goals
77%
Municipal San Ramón 2+ goals
44%
Municipal San Ramón 3+ goals
19%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
66%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
29%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Municipal San Ramón (draw refunded)
63%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal San Ramón at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal San Ramón attack 1.18 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Municipal San Ramón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Municipal San Ramón scores more
47%
level
26%
Cariari Pococi scores more
27%

Municipal San Ramón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Municipal San Ramón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
J. Perez
55'
E. Sandoval
72'
E. SandovalPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Municipal San Ramón 1–2 Cariari Pococi

Cariari Pococi beat Municipal San Ramón 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 6, 2020.

Goals: J. Perez (51'), E. Sandoval (55', 72' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán in San Ramón de Alajuela.