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Cariari Pococi vs Municipal San Ramón — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
1 – 2
Municipal San Ramón
Municipal San Ramón
E. Sandoval 18'
E. Zuniga 55'
L. Naranjo 2'
1/19/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cariari Pococi46%
×Draw25%
Municipal San Ramón29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.52
Municipal San Ramón
1.16

Cariari Pococi creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Municipal San Ramón
0.91

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Municipal San Ramón
1.36

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Municipal San Ramón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Municipal San Ramón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
71%
Cariari Pococi or Municipal San Ramón
75%
Draw or Municipal San Ramón
54%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
23%
Municipal San Ramón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
78%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
45%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
20%
Municipal San Ramón 1+ goals
69%
Municipal San Ramón 2+ goals
32%
Municipal San Ramón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
61%
Municipal San Ramón (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Municipal San Ramón away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Municipal San Ramón defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Municipal San Ramón attack 0.91 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
46%
level
25%
Municipal San Ramón scores more
29%

Cariari Pococi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
L. Naranjo
18'
E. Sandoval
55'
E. Zuniga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Municipal San Ramón

Municipal San Ramón beat Cariari Pococi 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 19, 2021.

Goals: L. Naranjo (2'), E. Sandoval (18'), E. Zuniga (55').

The match was played at Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar in Guápiles.