Municipal Salamanca 3–0 General Velásquez

Municipal Salamanca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

General Velásquez

5/4/2025

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Salamanca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Municipal Salamanca49%

×Draw29%

General Velásquez22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal SalamancaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.75

Municipal Salamanca

1.29

General Velásquez

0.75

Municipal Salamanca creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

1.28

creates per match

1.06

0.44

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Municipal Salamanca

1.28

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Municipal Salamanca

0.44

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Salamanca ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Municipal Salamanca or draw

78%

Municipal Salamanca or General Velásquez

71%

Draw or General Velásquez

51%

Winning margin

Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+

23%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals

72%

Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals

37%

Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals

14%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

53%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

17%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)

69%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Salamanca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.28 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Municipal Salamanca defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Municipal Salamanca scores more

49%

level

29%

General Velásquez scores more

22%

Municipal Salamanca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Municipal Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff