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General Velásquez vs Municipal Salamanca — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Municipal Salamanca
Municipal Salamanca
10/5/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

General Velásquez43%
×Draw27%
Municipal Salamanca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.38
Municipal Salamanca
1.10

General Velásquez creates 25% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 18 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Municipal Salamanca
1.17

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Municipal Salamanca
1.33

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Municipal Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
70%
General Velásquez or Municipal Salamanca
73%
Draw or Municipal Salamanca
57%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
20%
Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
75%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
40%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
16%
Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals
67%
Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals
30%
Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
59%
Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Municipal Salamanca away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Municipal Salamanca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.17 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

General Velásquez scores more
43%
level
27%
Municipal Salamanca scores more
30%

General Velásquez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: General Velásquez 1–0 Municipal Salamanca

General Velásquez beat Municipal Salamanca 1-0 in Segunda División on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.