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Municipal Liberia vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
2/27/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Municipal Liberia42%
×Draw25%
Escorpiones Belén33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Liberia
1.52
Escorpiones Belén
1.30

Municipal Liberia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

creates per match

Municipal Liberia
1.54
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Municipal Liberia
1.00
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Liberia ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Municipal Liberia or draw
67%
Municipal Liberia or Escorpiones Belén
75%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
58%

Winning margin

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
21%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
78%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
45%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
20%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
73%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
37%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
57%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Liberia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 76 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Liberia attack 1.54 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Municipal Liberia scores more
42%
level
25%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
33%

Municipal Liberia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Municipal Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Municipal Liberia 2–0 Escorpiones Belén

Municipal Liberia beat Escorpiones Belén 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño in Liberia.