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Escorpiones Belén vs Municipal Liberia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
1 – 1
Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
9/25/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 11Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Escorpiones Belén50%
×Draw22%
Municipal Liberia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.96
Municipal Liberia
1.44

Escorpiones Belén creates 36% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 80 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Municipal Liberia
1.35

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Municipal Liberia
1.55

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Municipal Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
72%
Escorpiones Belén or Municipal Liberia
78%
Draw or Municipal Liberia
50%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
28%
Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
86%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
58%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
31%
Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
76%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
42%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
64%
Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
50%
level
22%
Municipal Liberia scores more
28%

Escorpiones Belén at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Municipal Liberia

Escorpiones Belén and Municipal Liberia drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.