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Municipal Liberia vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
11/25/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Municipal Liberia50%
×Draw24%
Cariari Pococi25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Liberia
1.68
Cariari Pococi
1.12

Municipal Liberia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 107 away

creates per match

Municipal Liberia
1.55
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Municipal Liberia
1.01
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Liberia ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Municipal Liberia or draw
75%
Municipal Liberia or Cariari Pococi
76%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
50%

Winning margin

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
27%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
81%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
50%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
24%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
67%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
31%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
66%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Liberia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Liberia attack 1.55 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Municipal Liberia scores more
50%
level
24%
Cariari Pococi scores more
25%

Municipal Liberia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Municipal Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Municipal Liberia 2–2 Cariari Pococi

Municipal Liberia and Cariari Pococi drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño in Liberia.