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Cariari Pococi vs Municipal Liberia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pocociadvanced
FT
2 – 1
Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
11/22/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Cariari Pococi43%
×Draw24%
Municipal Liberia33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.61
Municipal Liberia
1.38

Cariari Pococi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Municipal Liberia
1.35

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Municipal Liberia
1.55

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Municipal Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
67%
Cariari Pococi or Municipal Liberia
76%
Draw or Municipal Liberia
57%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
22%
Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
80%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
48%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
22%
Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
75%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
40%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
57%
Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
43%
level
24%
Municipal Liberia scores more
33%

Cariari Pococi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Municipal Liberia

Cariari Pococi beat Municipal Liberia 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar in Guápiles.