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Mumbai City vs Chennaiyin — Indian Super League 2025

Mumbai City
Mumbai City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
P. Kotal 49' (OG)
2/19/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 1Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mumbai City51%
×Draw24%
Chennaiyin25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mumbai City
1.69
Chennaiyin
1.11

Mumbai City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mumbai City
1.38
Chennaiyin
1.08

allows per match

Mumbai City
1.15
Chennaiyin
2.00

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par
Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Chennaiyin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw
75%
Mumbai City or Chennaiyin
76%
Draw or Chennaiyin
49%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+
27%
Chennaiyin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals
82%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
50%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
24%
Chennaiyin 1+ goals
67%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
30%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)
67%
Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + Chennaiyin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chennaiyin attack 1.08 + Mumbai City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mumbai City scores more
51%
level
24%
Chennaiyin scores more
25%

Mumbai City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. NawazChennaiyinChennaiyin · G
8.0

Match Events

3'
Jorge Pereyra Díaz
5'
Elsinho
49'
P. KotalOwn goal
61'
Z. Zothanpuia← J. Kauko
65'
Eduardo Kau← Elsinho
65'
S. Vivek← I. Khan
71'
V. Partap Singh← B. Fernandes
71'
G. Singh← I. Martin
71'
M. T. Singh← L. Hnamte
72'
P. Noufal← M. J. Ortiz
87'
P N Noufal
88'
J. Singh← I. Yadwad
90+8'
Sahil Panwar
90'
Yumkhaibam Jiteshwor Singh

Possession

39%Mumbai

Shots

12Mumbai

Pass accuracy

47%Mumbai

Statistics

MumbaiChennaiyin
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots12
0.98Expected Goals (xG)0.99
5Corners15
18Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots12
3On Target3
6Off Target3
3Blocked6
4Inside Box10
8Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
263Total Passes413
178Accurate Passes324
68%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Mumbai City vs Chennaiyin

Mumbai City beat Chennaiyin 1-0 in Indian Super League on February 19, 2026.

Goals: P. Kotal (49' o.g.).

Chennaiyin controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Mumbai Football Arena in Mumbai.