Chennaiyin 1–1 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Chennaiyin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mumbai City

R. Edwards 60'

N. Rodrigues 63'

11/9/2024

Indian Super League · Round 8Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chennaiyin32%

×Draw26%

Mumbai City42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChennaiyinExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.42

Chennaiyin

1.22

Mumbai City

1.42

Mumbai City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

1.36

creates per match

1.38

1.45

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Chennaiyin

1.36

Mumbai City

1.38

allows per match

Chennaiyin

1.45

Mumbai City

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennaiyin ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chennaiyin or draw

58%

Chennaiyin or Mumbai City

74%

Draw or Mumbai City

68%

Winning margin

Chennaiyin wins by 2+

14%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Chennaiyin 1+ goals

70%

Chennaiyin 2+ goals

34%

Chennaiyin 3+ goals

12%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

76%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

41%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)

44%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennaiyin at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennaiyin attack 1.36 + Mumbai City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + Chennaiyin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chennaiyin scores more

32%

level

26%

Mumbai City scores more

42%

Mumbai City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

N. Rodrigues

Mumbai City · D

8.0

Match Events

42'

Mehtab Singh

46'

J. Rane← B. Fernandes

53'

Laldinpuia PC

57'

Bikash Yumnam

60'

R. Edwards↳ C. Shields

63'

N. Rodrigues↳ Y. van Nieff

65'

L. Hnamte← F. Choudhary

66'

Lukas Brambilla← Elsinho

67'

Noufal PN← B. Singh

68'

Thaer Krouma← Tiri

72'

D. Chima← W. Jordán

85'

G. Singh← V. Barretto

85'

K. Nassiri← I. Yadwad

85'

F. Nazareth← J. Manzorro

90+4'

D. Lalhlimpuia← N. Karelis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChennaiyinMumbai

Overview

28%Possession72%

13Total Shots14

3Corners8

15Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target7

4Blocked3

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

28%Possession72%

209Total Passes557

142Accurate Passes471

68%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0