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Mumbai City vs Al-Jazira — AFC Champions League 2018

Mumbai City
Mumbai City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Jazira
Al-Jazira
4/18/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mumbai City31%
×Draw27%
Al-Jazira42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mumbai City
1.09
Al-Jazira
1.32

Al-Jazira creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mumbai City
0.33
Al-Jazira
1.14

allows per match

Mumbai City
1.50
Al-Jazira
1.86

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par
Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Al-Jazira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw
58%
Mumbai City or Al-Jazira
73%
Draw or Al-Jazira
69%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+
12%
Al-Jazira wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals
66%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
30%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
10%
Al-Jazira 1+ goals
73%
Al-Jazira 2+ goals
38%
Al-Jazira 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)
42%
Al-Jazira (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Al-Jazira away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Al-Jazira defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al-Jazira attack 1.14 + Mumbai City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mumbai City scores more
31%
level
27%
Al-Jazira scores more
42%

Al-Jazira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Jazira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mumbai City vs Al-Jazira

Mumbai City and Al-Jazira drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.