Al-Jazira 1–0 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Al-Jazira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mumbai City

4/14/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Jazira68%

×Draw19%

Mumbai City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-JaziraExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.88

Al-Jazira

2.23

Mumbai City

0.88

Al-Jazira creates 153% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

0.33

1.43

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Al-Jazira

1.29

Mumbai City

0.33

allows per match

Al-Jazira

1.43

Mumbai City

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Jazira ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Jazira or draw

86%

Al-Jazira or Mumbai City

81%

Draw or Mumbai City

32%

Winning margin

Al-Jazira wins by 2+

44%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al-Jazira 1+ goals

89%

Al-Jazira 2+ goals

65%

Al-Jazira 3+ goals

38%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

59%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

22%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al-Jazira (draw refunded)

83%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Jazira at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Jazira attack 1.29 + Mumbai City defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Al-Jazira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al-Jazira scores more

68%

level

19%

Mumbai City scores more

14%

Al-Jazira at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al-Jazira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff