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Mülheimer vs Büderich — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Mülheimer
Mülheimer
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Büderich
Büderich
10/29/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12RuhrStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mülheimer42%
×Draw21%
Büderich37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheimer
2.06
Büderich
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mülheimer
1.94
Büderich
1.92

allows per match

Mülheimer
1.94
Büderich
2.18

finishing

Mülheimer+0.00on par
Büderich+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheimer ↓

Büderich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mülheimer or draw
63%
Mülheimer or Büderich
79%
Draw or Büderich
58%

Winning margin

Mülheimer wins by 2+
23%
Büderich wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mülheimer 1+ goals
87%
Mülheimer 2+ goals
61%
Mülheimer 3+ goals
34%
Büderich 1+ goals
85%
Büderich 2+ goals
57%
Büderich 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mülheimer (draw refunded)
53%
Büderich (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheimer at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Büderich away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheimer attack 1.94 + Büderich defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.06

Büderich attack 1.92 + Mülheimer defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mülheimer scores more
42%
level
21%
Büderich scores more
37%

Mülheimer at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mülheimer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mülheimer vs Büderich

Mülheimer beat Büderich 4-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at RuhrStadion in Mülheim an der Ruhr.