Büderich 4–1 Mülheimer: Result & Stats

Büderich

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mülheimer

4/26/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29Sportplatz Am Eisenbrand Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Büderich56%

×Draw20%

Mülheimer24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BüderichExpected goals in this matchMülheimer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.44

Büderich

2.25

Mülheimer

1.44

Büderich creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.96

creates per match

0.97

1.90

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Büderich

1.96

Mülheimer

0.97

allows per match

Büderich

1.90

Mülheimer

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Büderich+0.00on par

Mülheimer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Büderich ↓

Mülheimer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Büderich or draw

76%

Büderich or Mülheimer

80%

Draw or Mülheimer

44%

Winning margin

Büderich wins by 2+

34%

Mülheimer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Büderich 1+ goals

89%

Büderich 2+ goals

65%

Büderich 3+ goals

39%

Mülheimer 1+ goals

76%

Mülheimer 2+ goals

42%

Mülheimer 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Büderich (draw refunded)

70%

Mülheimer (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Büderich at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

Mülheimer away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Büderich attack 1.96 + Mülheimer defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.25

Mülheimer attack 0.97 + Büderich defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Büderich scores more

56%

level

20%

Mülheimer scores more

24%

Büderich at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Büderich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff