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Mülheim-Kärlich vs Hertha Wiesbach — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
FT
0 – 4
Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
4/23/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 7Kunstrasenplatz Mülheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich9%
×Draw16%
Hertha Wiesbach75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheim-Kärlich
0.75
Hertha Wiesbach
2.50

Hertha Wiesbach creates 233% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
0.50
Hertha Wiesbach
2.17

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83
Hertha Wiesbach
1.00

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par
Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw
25%
Mülheim-Kärlich or Hertha Wiesbach
84%
Draw or Hertha Wiesbach
91%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
3%
Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
53%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
17%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
4%
Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
92%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
71%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
11%
Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.50 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.17 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
9%
level
16%
Hertha Wiesbach scores more
75%

Hertha Wiesbach at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Mülheim-Kärlich 0–4 Hertha Wiesbach

Hertha Wiesbach beat Mülheim-Kärlich 4-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mülheim in Mülheim-Kärlich.