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Hertha Wiesbach vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
FT
3 – 3
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
3/11/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 1ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach72%
×Draw15%
Mülheim-Kärlich13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
3.00
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.25

Hertha Wiesbach creates 140% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
3.17
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.17

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.33
Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
87%
Hertha Wiesbach or Mülheim-Kärlich
85%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
28%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
52%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
95%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
79%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
56%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
71%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
36%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
84%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 3.17 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.00

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.17 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
72%
level
15%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
13%

Hertha Wiesbach at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Hertha Wiesbach 3–3 Mülheim-Kärlich

Hertha Wiesbach and Mülheim-Kärlich drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn in Eppelborn.