Mülheim-Kärlich vs Hassia Bingen

Mülheim-Kärlich

CANC

13:30

Hassia Bingen

11/22/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 13Schul- & Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich39%

×Draw23%

Hassia Bingen38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mülheim-KärlichExpected goals in this matchHassia Bingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.66

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.68

Hassia Bingen

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.92

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.63

Hassia Bingen

1.40

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.92

Hassia Bingen

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Hassia Bingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw

62%

Mülheim-Kärlich or Hassia Bingen

77%

Draw or Hassia Bingen

61%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+

20%

Hassia Bingen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals

81%

Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals

50%

Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals

24%

Hassia Bingen 1+ goals

81%

Hassia Bingen 2+ goals

49%

Hassia Bingen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)

51%

Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

Hassia Bingen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.63 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hassia Bingen attack 1.40 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more

39%

level

23%

Hassia Bingen scores more

38%

Mülheim-Kärlich at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mülheim-Kärlich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff