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Hassia Bingen vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
FT
0 – 2
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
11/24/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Stadion am Hessenhaus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hassia Bingen45%
×Draw24%
Mülheim-Kärlich31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassia Bingen
1.72
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.39

Hassia Bingen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

creates per match

Hassia Bingen
1.56
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.83

allows per match

Hassia Bingen
1.94
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.88

finishing

Hassia Bingen+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassia Bingen ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hassia Bingen or draw
69%
Hassia Bingen or Mülheim-Kärlich
76%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
55%

Winning margin

Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
24%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
82%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
51%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
25%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
75%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
40%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
59%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassia Bingen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassia Bingen attack 1.56 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hassia Bingen scores more
45%
level
24%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
31%

Hassia Bingen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hassia Bingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Hassia Bingen 0–2 Mülheim-Kärlich

Mülheim-Kärlich beat Hassia Bingen 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion am Hessenhaus in Bingen.