Muleño vs Huércal Overa: Preview & Prediction

Muleño

CANC

22:00

Huércal Overa

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 37Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Muleño42%

×Draw27%

Huércal Overa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuleñoExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.13

Muleño

1.37

Huércal Overa

1.13

Muleño creates 21% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 47 away

1.06

creates per match

0.79

1.46

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Muleño

1.06

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Muleño

1.46

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Muleño or draw

69%

Muleño or Huércal Overa

73%

Draw or Huércal Overa

58%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+

20%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals

75%

Muleño 2+ goals

40%

Muleño 3+ goals

16%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

68%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

31%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)

58%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muleño scores more

42%

level

27%

Huércal Overa scores more

31%

Muleño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Muleño host Huércal Overa

May 9, 2020: Muleño take on Huércal Overa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Muleño host Huércal Overa at Estadio Municipal de Mula.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Muleño vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Muleño host Huércal Overa