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Huércal Overa vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Muleño
Muleño
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa45%
×Draw27%
Muleño28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.36
Muleño
1.02

Huércal Overa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Muleño
0.99

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Muleño
1.69

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Muleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
72%
Huércal Overa or Muleño
73%
Draw or Muleño
55%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
21%
Muleño wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
74%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
39%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
16%
Muleño 1+ goals
64%
Muleño 2+ goals
27%
Muleño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
61%
Muleño (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Muleño attack 0.99 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
45%
level
27%
Muleño scores more
28%

Huércal Overa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Huércal Overa 1–0 Muleño

Huércal Overa beat Muleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.