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Muleño vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Muleño
Muleño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Muleño38%
×Draw27%
Deportiva Minera36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muleño
1.31
Deportiva Minera
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 78 away

creates per match

Muleño
1.06
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Muleño
1.46
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Muleño or draw
64%
Muleño or Deportiva Minera
73%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
62%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+
17%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals
73%
Muleño 2+ goals
38%
Muleño 3+ goals
14%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
72%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
36%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)
51%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Muleño scores more
38%
level
27%
Deportiva Minera scores more
36%

Muleño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Muleño 1–0 Deportiva Minera

Muleño beat Deportiva Minera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mula in Mula.