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Deportiva Minera vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Muleño
Muleño
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Deportiva Minera52%
×Draw25%
Muleño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.59
Muleño
0.97

Deportiva Minera creates 64% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 95 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
Muleño
0.99

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
Muleño
1.69

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

Muleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
77%
Deportiva Minera or Muleño
75%
Draw or Muleño
48%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
27%
Muleño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
80%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
47%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
21%
Muleño 1+ goals
62%
Muleño 2+ goals
25%
Muleño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
69%
Muleño (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Muleño attack 0.99 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
52%
level
25%
Muleño scores more
23%

Deportiva Minera at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Deportiva Minera 5–1 Muleño

Deportiva Minera beat Muleño 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.