Muleño 1–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia: Result & Stats

Muleño

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Juan 32'

M. Sidibé 82'

3/10/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio Municipal de Mula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Muleño38%

×Draw28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuleñoExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.16

Muleño

1.25

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 78 away

1.06

creates per match

0.85

1.46

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Muleño

1.06

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Muleño

1.46

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muleño+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muleño ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Muleño or draw

66%

Muleño or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

72%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

62%

Winning margin

Muleño wins by 2+

17%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Muleño 1+ goals

71%

Muleño 2+ goals

36%

Muleño 3+ goals

13%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

32%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Muleño (draw refunded)

53%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muleño at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muleño attack 1.06 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Muleño defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Muleño scores more

38%

level

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

34%

Muleño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Juan

52'

Alejandro González← José Mariano

52'

J. Díaz← N. Kwaku

74'

Álex García← Alejandro Pérez

74'

Morales← Feli Martínez

75'

Junior← Camacho

75'

Raúl Morales← Luis Galindo

82'

Joaquin Lisón← Picó

82'

Enrique Soriano← Juan

82'

M. Sidibé

Muleño

CAP

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Juan

Manager: Serafín García

75'▲Junior←▼Camacho

75'▲Raúl Morales←▼Luis Galindo

82'▲Joaquin Lisón←▼Picó

82'▲Enrique Soriano←▼Juan

Muleño substitutes

JuniorMoralesLisónSoriano

Manager: Juan López

52'▲Alejandro González←▼José Mariano

52'▲J. Díaz←▼N. Kwaku

74'▲Álex García←▼Alejandro Pérez

74'▲Morales←▼Feli Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

GonzálezDíazGarcíaMorales