CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–0 Muleño: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Muleño

Fran Martínez 90+2'

3/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia45%

×Draw27%

Muleño28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchMuleño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.36

Muleño

1.02

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 95 away

1.03

creates per match

0.99

1.04

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Muleño

0.99

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Muleño

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Muleño →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

72%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Muleño

73%

Draw or Muleño

55%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

21%

Muleño wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

74%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

39%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

16%

Muleño 1+ goals

64%

Muleño 2+ goals

27%

Muleño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

61%

Muleño (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

Muleño attack 0.99 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

45%

level

27%

Muleño scores more

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Carrillo← Sergio Alcaraz

61'

José Villanueva← Jorge Martínez

63'

Fran Martínez← Fernando Carmona

74'

Jesus Martinez← Sergio Fernandez

76'

Asensio Miñarro← Lorenzo Lopez

77'

Villa← Cobos

87'

Diego Jiménez← Alejandro Pascual

90+2'

Fran Martínez

CAP

Muleño

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

63'▲Fran Martínez←▼Fernando Carmona

76'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Lorenzo Lopez

87'▲Diego Jiménez←▼Alejandro Pascual

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MartínezMiñarroJiménez

Manager: Sergio Yúfera

46'▲Carrillo←▼Sergio Alcaraz

61'▲José Villanueva←▼Jorge Martínez

74'▲Jesus Martinez←▼Sergio Fernandez

77'▲Villa←▼Cobos

Muleño substitutes

CarrilloVillanuevaMartinezVilla

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–0 Muleño

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Muleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 26, 2023.

Goals: Fran Martínez (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–0 Muleño