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Mulembe United vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Mulembe United
Mulembe United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
1/13/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mulembe United43%
×Draw29%
Migori Youth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mulembe United
1.23
Migori Youth
0.94

Mulembe United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mulembe United
1.20
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Mulembe United
0.97
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Mulembe United+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulembe United ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mulembe United or draw
72%
Mulembe United or Migori Youth
71%
Draw or Migori Youth
57%

Winning margin

Mulembe United wins by 2+
19%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mulembe United 1+ goals
71%
Mulembe United 2+ goals
35%
Mulembe United 3+ goals
13%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
61%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
24%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mulembe United (draw refunded)
60%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mulembe United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mulembe United attack 1.20 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Mulembe United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mulembe United scores more
43%
level
29%
Migori Youth scores more
28%

Mulembe United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mulembe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mulembe United 2–0 Migori Youth

Mulembe United beat Migori Youth 2-0 in Super League on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.