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Migori Youth vs Mulembe United — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mulembe United
Mulembe United
4/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Migori Youth56%
×Draw27%
Mulembe United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.45
Mulembe United
0.65

Migori Youth creates 123% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 36 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Mulembe United
0.78

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Mulembe United
1.56

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Mulembe United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Mulembe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
83%
Migori Youth or Mulembe United
73%
Draw or Mulembe United
44%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
29%
Mulembe United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
77%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
42%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
18%
Mulembe United 1+ goals
48%
Mulembe United 2+ goals
14%
Mulembe United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
77%
Mulembe United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Mulembe United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Mulembe United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mulembe United attack 0.78 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Migori Youth scores more
56%
level
27%
Mulembe United scores more
17%

Migori Youth at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Migori Youth 1–0 Mulembe United

Migori Youth beat Mulembe United 1-0 in Super League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.