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Mulembe United vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Mulembe United
Mulembe United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
11/4/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mulembe United37%
×Draw28%
Mara Sugar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mulembe United
1.17
Mara Sugar
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Mulembe United
1.20
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Mulembe United
0.97
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Mulembe United+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mulembe United ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mulembe United or draw
65%
Mulembe United or Mara Sugar
72%
Draw or Mara Sugar
63%

Winning margin

Mulembe United wins by 2+
15%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mulembe United 1+ goals
69%
Mulembe United 2+ goals
33%
Mulembe United 3+ goals
11%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
68%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
32%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mulembe United (draw refunded)
51%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mulembe United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mulembe United attack 1.20 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Mulembe United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mulembe United scores more
37%
level
28%
Mara Sugar scores more
35%

Mulembe United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mulembe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mulembe United 2–1 Mara Sugar

Mulembe United beat Mara Sugar 2-1 in Super League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.