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Mara Sugar vs Mulembe United — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mulembe United
Mulembe United
2/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Mara Sugar59%
×Draw23%
Mulembe United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.73
Mulembe United
0.80

Mara Sugar creates 116% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Mulembe United
0.78

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Mulembe United
1.56

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Mulembe United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Mulembe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
83%
Mara Sugar or Mulembe United
77%
Draw or Mulembe United
41%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
34%
Mulembe United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
82%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
52%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
25%
Mulembe United 1+ goals
55%
Mulembe United 2+ goals
19%
Mulembe United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
78%
Mulembe United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Mulembe United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Mulembe United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mulembe United attack 0.78 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
59%
level
23%
Mulembe United scores more
17%

Mara Sugar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mara Sugar 1–0 Mulembe United

Mara Sugar beat Mulembe United 1-0 in Super League on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.