Muhoroni Youth 0–1 KCB: Result & Stats

Muhoroni Youth

FT

0 – 1

KCB

10/9/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 6Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth25%

×Draw30%

KCB45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muhoroni YouthExpected goals in this matchKCB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.17

Muhoroni Youth

0.78

KCB

1.17

KCB creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 130 away

0.71

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

KCB

1.15

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth

1.18

KCB

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

KCB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw

55%

Muhoroni Youth or KCB

70%

Draw or KCB

75%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

8%

KCB wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

54%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

18%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

4%

KCB 1+ goals

69%

KCB 2+ goals

33%

KCB 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

35%

KCB (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

KCB away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + KCB defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

KCB attack 1.15 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more

25%

level

30%

KCB scores more

45%

KCB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff