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KCB vs Muhoroni Youth — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
1/20/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KCB38%
×Draw33%
Muhoroni Youth30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
0.98
Muhoroni Youth
0.84

KCB creates 17% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 17 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Muhoroni Youth
0.71

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Muhoroni Youth
0.82

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

KCB or draw
70%
KCB or Muhoroni Youth
67%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
62%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
14%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
62%
KCB 2+ goals
26%
KCB 3+ goals
8%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
57%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
21%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
56%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KCB scores more
38%
level
33%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
30%

KCB at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCB vs Muhoroni Youth

KCB and Muhoroni Youth drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.