Muhoroni Youth 0–1 AFC Leopards: Result & Stats

Muhoroni Youth

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Leopards

1/14/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 16Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth27%

×Draw30%

AFC Leopards43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muhoroni YouthExpected goals in this matchAFC Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.17

Muhoroni Youth

0.87

AFC Leopards

1.17

AFC Leopards creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 146 away

0.71

creates per match

1.17

1.18

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

AFC Leopards

1.17

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth

1.18

AFC Leopards

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

AFC Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw

57%

Muhoroni Youth or AFC Leopards

70%

Draw or AFC Leopards

73%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

9%

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

58%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

22%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

6%

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

69%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

33%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

39%

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.87

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more

27%

level

30%

AFC Leopards scores more

43%

AFC Leopards at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff