AFC Leopards 0–0 Muhoroni Youth: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Muhoroni Youth

9/16/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 3Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AFC Leopards39%

×Draw33%

Muhoroni Youth28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchMuhoroni Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.78

AFC Leopards

0.98

Muhoroni Youth

0.78

AFC Leopards creates 26% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Muhoroni Youth

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Muhoroni Youth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

72%

AFC Leopards or Muhoroni Youth

67%

Draw or Muhoroni Youth

61%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

15%

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

62%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

26%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

8%

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

54%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

18%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

58%

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

39%

level

33%

Muhoroni Youth scores more

28%

AFC Leopards at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff