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Muharraq vs Bahrain SC — Premier League 2019

Muharraq
Muharraq
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
4/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Muharraq67%
×Draw20%
Bahrain SC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muharraq
2.04
Bahrain SC
0.75

Muharraq creates 172% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

creates per match

Muharraq
1.89
Bahrain SC
0.83

allows per match

Muharraq
0.67
Bahrain SC
2.19

finishing

Muharraq+0.00on par
Bahrain SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muharraq ↓

Bahrain SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Muharraq or draw
87%
Muharraq or Bahrain SC
80%
Draw or Bahrain SC
33%

Winning margin

Muharraq wins by 2+
42%
Bahrain SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Muharraq 1+ goals
87%
Muharraq 2+ goals
60%
Muharraq 3+ goals
33%
Bahrain SC 1+ goals
53%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
17%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Muharraq (draw refunded)
84%
Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muharraq at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 70 matches

Bahrain SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muharraq attack 1.89 + Bahrain SC defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bahrain SC attack 0.83 + Muharraq defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Muharraq scores more
67%
level
20%
Bahrain SC scores more
13%

Muharraq at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Muharraq 0–0 Bahrain SC

Muharraq and Bahrain SC drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.