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Bahrain SC vs Muharraq — Premier League 2019

Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Muharraq
Muharraq
Joel 26'
6 Ibrahim Sa'deh 90+16'
Husain Abdulkarim 90+4'
Juninho Piauiense 43'
4/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bahrain SC23%
×Draw24%
Muharraq52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain SC
1.02
Muharraq
1.66

Muharraq creates 63% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bahrain SC
1.14
Muharraq
1.67

allows per match

Bahrain SC
1.65
Muharraq
0.90

finishing

Bahrain SC+0.00on par
Muharraq+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain SC ↓

Muharraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bahrain SC or draw
48%
Bahrain SC or Muharraq
76%
Draw or Muharraq
77%

Winning margin

Bahrain SC wins by 2+
8%
Muharraq wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Bahrain SC 1+ goals
64%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
27%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
8%
Muharraq 1+ goals
81%
Muharraq 2+ goals
49%
Muharraq 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
31%
Muharraq (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain SC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Muharraq away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain SC attack 1.14 + Muharraq defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Muharraq attack 1.67 + Bahrain SC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bahrain SC scores more
23%
level
24%
Muharraq scores more
52%

Muharraq at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Joel
43'
Juninho Piauiense
90+3'
S. Mahrouq
90+4'
Husain Abdulkarim
90+16'
6 Ibrahim Sa'deh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bahrain SC 1 – 3 Muharraq

Muharraq beat Bahrain SC 3-1 in Premier League on April 14, 2025.

Goals: Joel (26'), Juninho Piauiense (43'), Husain Abdulkarim (90+4'), 6 Ibrahim Sa'deh (90+16').

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.