Muharraq 3–0 Al Shabab: Result & Stats

Muharraq

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Shabab

Husain Abdulkarim 90+1'

Juninho Piauiense 58', 13'

9/22/2024

Premier League · Round 1Khalifa Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Muharraq58%

×Draw24%

Al Shabab18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuharraqExpected goals in this matchAl Shabab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.80

Muharraq

1.69

Al Shabab

0.80

Muharraq creates 111% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 52 away

1.89

creates per match

0.94

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Muharraq

1.89

Al Shabab

0.94

allows per match

Muharraq

0.67

Al Shabab

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muharraq+0.00on par

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muharraq ↓

Al Shabab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Muharraq or draw

82%

Muharraq or Al Shabab

76%

Draw or Al Shabab

42%

Winning margin

Muharraq wins by 2+

33%

Al Shabab wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Muharraq 1+ goals

82%

Muharraq 2+ goals

50%

Muharraq 3+ goals

24%

Al Shabab 1+ goals

55%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

19%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Muharraq (draw refunded)

77%

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muharraq at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 70 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muharraq attack 1.89 + Al Shabab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al Shabab attack 0.94 + Muharraq defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Muharraq scores more

58%

level

24%

Al Shabab scores more

18%

Muharraq at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Juninho Piauiense

58'

Juninho Piauiense

90+1'

Husain Abdulkarim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff