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Al Shabab vs Muharraq — Premier League 2019

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Muharraq
Muharraq
Rafa Santos 36'
Husain Abdulkarim 89'
Juninho Piauiense 82'
3/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Khalifa Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Shabab22%
×Draw26%
Muharraq52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
0.89
Muharraq
1.52

Muharraq creates 71% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
0.87
Muharraq
1.67

allows per match

Al Shabab
1.38
Muharraq
0.90

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Muharraq+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Muharraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
48%
Al Shabab or Muharraq
74%
Draw or Muharraq
78%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
7%
Muharraq wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
59%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
22%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
6%
Muharraq 1+ goals
78%
Muharraq 2+ goals
45%
Muharraq 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
30%
Muharraq (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Muharraq away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 0.87 + Muharraq defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Muharraq attack 1.67 + Al Shabab defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Shabab scores more
22%
level
26%
Muharraq scores more
52%

Muharraq at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Rafa Santos
82'
Juninho Piauiense
84'
Juninho Piauiense
89'
Husain Abdulkarim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shabab vs Muharraq

Muharraq beat Al Shabab 2-1 in Premier League on March 4, 2025.

Goals: Rafa Santos (36'), Juninho Piauiense (82'), Husain Abdulkarim (89').

The match was played at Khalifa Sports City Stadium in Manama.