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Muangkan United vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Muangkan United
Muangkan United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
9/26/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United54%
×Draw22%
Kasetsart FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muangkan United
1.93
Kasetsart FC
1.21

Muangkan United creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

Muangkan United
2.00
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Muangkan United
1.53
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw
76%
Muangkan United or Kasetsart FC
78%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
46%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+
31%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals
85%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
57%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
30%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
70%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
34%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)
69%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Muangkan United scores more
54%
level
22%
Kasetsart FC scores more
24%

Muangkan United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muangkan United vs Kasetsart FC

Kasetsart FC beat Muangkan United 2-1 in Thai League 2 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.