Kasetsart FC 2–2 Muangkan United: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Muangkan United

1/29/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 21Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kasetsart FC40%

×Draw23%

Muangkan United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchMuangkan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.67

Kasetsart FC

1.72

Muangkan United

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

2.12

1.21

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.32

Muangkan United

2.12

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.21

Muangkan United

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Muangkan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Muangkan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

62%

Kasetsart FC or Muangkan United

77%

Draw or Muangkan United

60%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

20%

Muangkan United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

82%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

51%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

25%

Muangkan United 1+ goals

81%

Muangkan United 2+ goals

50%

Muangkan United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

51%

Muangkan United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Muangkan United away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Muangkan United defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.72

Muangkan United attack 2.12 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

40%

level

23%

Muangkan United scores more

38%

Kasetsart FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff