Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MTK Budapest vs Kecskeméti TE — League #271 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kecskeméti TE
Kecskeméti TE
R. Polievka 72'
M. Jurina 36'
G. Pálinkás 52'
5/10/2025League #271League #271 · Round 31Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MTK Budapest47%
×Draw23%
Kecskeméti TE29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
1.75
Kecskeméti TE
1.33

MTK Budapest creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
1.50
Kecskeméti TE
1.33

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.33
Kecskeméti TE
2.00

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Kecskeméti TE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
71%
MTK Budapest or Kecskeméti TE
77%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE
53%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
25%
Kecskeméti TE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
83%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
52%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
25%
Kecskeméti TE 1+ goals
74%
Kecskeméti TE 2+ goals
38%
Kecskeméti TE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
62%
Kecskeméti TE (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Kecskeméti TE away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 1.50 + Kecskeméti TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kecskeméti TE attack 1.33 + MTK Budapest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
47%
level
23%
Kecskeméti TE scores more
29%

MTK Budapest at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
P. DemjénMTK BudapestMTK Budapest · G
8.2

Match Events

10'
G. Pálinkás← D. Lukács
36'
M. Jurina↳ T. Kádár
46'
R. Polievka← B. Végh
46'
M. Májer← M. Berki
46'
B. Katona← D. Zsótér
52'
G. Pálinkás↳ B. Kovács
63'
K. Nagy← B. Kovács
65'
Csaba Belényesi
67'
Z. Gruber← Á. Molnár
72'
R. Polievka↳ P. Kovács
78'
Tòfol Montiel← L. Katona
82'
K. Németh← M. Jurina
88'
Endre Botka
90+3'
G. Szőke← R. Polievka

Possession

56%MTK

Shots

14MTK

Pass accuracy

51%MTK

Statistics

MTKKecskeméti
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots15
4Corners9
9Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots15
3On Target7
5Off Target6
6Blocked2
7Inside Box10
7Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
549Total Passes408
473Accurate Passes332
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: MTK Budapest vs Kecskeméti TE

MTK Budapest beat Kecskeméti TE 2-1 in League #271 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: M. Jurina (36'), G. Pálinkás (52'), R. Polievka (72').

MTK Budapest controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion in Budapest.