MTK Budapest 3–1 Kecskeméti TE: Result & Stats

MTK Budapest

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kecskeméti TE

I. Beriashvili 87'

R. Molnár 22'

M. Kosznovszky 18'

D. Lukács 13'

10/5/2024

League #271 · Round 9Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MTK Budapest47%

×Draw23%

Kecskeméti TE29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MTK BudapestExpected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.33

MTK Budapest

1.75

Kecskeméti TE

1.33

MTK Budapest creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

MTK Budapest

1.50

Kecskeméti TE

1.33

allows per match

MTK Budapest

1.33

Kecskeméti TE

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Kecskeméti TE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw

71%

MTK Budapest or Kecskeméti TE

77%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE

53%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+

25%

Kecskeméti TE wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals

83%

MTK Budapest 2+ goals

52%

MTK Budapest 3+ goals

25%

Kecskeméti TE 1+ goals

74%

Kecskeméti TE 2+ goals

38%

Kecskeméti TE 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)

62%

Kecskeméti TE (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Kecskeméti TE away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 1.50 + Kecskeméti TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kecskeméti TE attack 1.33 + MTK Budapest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MTK Budapest scores more

47%

level

23%

Kecskeméti TE scores more

29%

MTK Budapest at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

I. Beriashvili

MTK Budapest · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

D. Lukács↳ K. Nagy

18'

M. Kosznovszky↳ V. Hei

22'

40'

53'

62'

67'

68'

73'

73'

78'

79'

79'

Z. Stieber← R. Molnár

84'

Z. Nagy← N. Antonov

87'

I. Beriashvili↳ Z. Stieber

89'

M. Berki← L. Katona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MTKKecskeméti

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots9

4Corners5

16Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target1

7Off Target6

3Blocked2

9Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

408Total Passes528

325Accurate Passes440

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls10

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3