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MTK Budapest II vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Főnix
Főnix
5/18/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MTK Budapest II70%
×Draw16%
Főnix14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest II
2.91
Főnix
1.26

MTK Budapest II creates 131% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest II
2.22
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

MTK Budapest II
1.13
Főnix
3.60

finishing

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest II ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

MTK Budapest II or draw
86%
MTK Budapest II or Főnix
84%
Draw or Főnix
30%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+
50%
Főnix wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals
94%
MTK Budapest II 2+ goals
78%
MTK Budapest II 3+ goals
54%
Főnix 1+ goals
72%
Főnix 2+ goals
36%
Főnix 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)
83%
Főnix (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest II attack 2.22 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.91

Főnix attack 1.40 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

MTK Budapest II scores more
70%
level
16%
Főnix scores more
14%

MTK Budapest II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MTK Budapest II vs Főnix

MTK Budapest II beat Főnix 4-3 in NB III - Southwest on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia in Budapest.