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Főnix vs MTK Budapest II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Főnix
Főnix
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II
11/3/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix30%
×Draw22%
MTK Budapest II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Főnix
1.46
MTK Budapest II
1.88

MTK Budapest II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Főnix
1.00
MTK Budapest II
1.36

allows per match

Főnix
2.40
MTK Budapest II
1.91

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par
MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

MTK Budapest II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Főnix or draw
53%
Főnix or MTK Budapest II
78%
Draw or MTK Budapest II
70%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+
14%
MTK Budapest II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals
77%
Főnix 2+ goals
43%
Főnix 3+ goals
18%
MTK Budapest II 1+ goals
85%
MTK Budapest II 2+ goals
56%
MTK Budapest II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)
39%
MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

MTK Budapest II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

MTK Budapest II attack 1.36 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Főnix scores more
30%
level
22%
MTK Budapest II scores more
47%

MTK Budapest II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Főnix 1–1 MTK Budapest II

Főnix and MTK Budapest II drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Főnix Park in Székesfehérvár.