MTK Budapest II 1–0 Ferencváros II: Result & Stats

MTK Budapest II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ferencváros II

3/10/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

MTK Budapest II47%

×Draw23%

Ferencváros II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MTK Budapest IIExpected goals in this matchFerencváros II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.44

MTK Budapest II

1.85

Ferencváros II

1.44

MTK Budapest II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.22

creates per match

1.76

1.13

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

MTK Budapest II

2.22

Ferencváros II

1.76

allows per match

MTK Budapest II

1.13

Ferencváros II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest II ↓

Ferencváros II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

MTK Budapest II or draw

70%

MTK Budapest II or Ferencváros II

77%

Draw or Ferencváros II

53%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+

26%

Ferencváros II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals

84%

MTK Budapest II 2+ goals

55%

MTK Budapest II 3+ goals

28%

Ferencváros II 1+ goals

76%

Ferencváros II 2+ goals

42%

Ferencváros II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)

61%

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest II attack 2.22 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MTK Budapest II scores more

47%

level

23%

Ferencváros II scores more

30%

MTK Budapest II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff