Ferencváros II 5–0 MTK Budapest II: Result & Stats

Ferencváros II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

MTK Budapest II

7/27/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 1FTC Utánpótlás Centrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ferencváros II59%

×Draw21%

MTK Budapest II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencváros IIExpected goals in this matchMTK Budapest II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.13

Ferencváros II

2.09

MTK Budapest II

1.13

Ferencváros II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.27

creates per match

1.36

0.89

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Ferencváros II

2.27

MTK Budapest II

1.36

allows per match

Ferencváros II

0.89

MTK Budapest II

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

MTK Budapest II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw

80%

Ferencváros II or MTK Budapest II

79%

Draw or MTK Budapest II

41%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+

36%

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals

88%

Ferencváros II 2+ goals

62%

Ferencváros II 3+ goals

34%

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals

68%

MTK Budapest II 2+ goals

31%

MTK Budapest II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)

75%

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

MTK Budapest II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 2.27 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.09

MTK Budapest II attack 1.36 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ferencváros II scores more

59%

level

21%

MTK Budapest II scores more

20%

Ferencváros II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff