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Mtibwa Sugar vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
O. Daga 90'
A. Iddy 30'
10/19/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar43%
×Draw29%
Kagera Sugar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
1.20
Kagera Sugar
0.91

Mtibwa Sugar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.08
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.06
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
72%
Mtibwa Sugar or Kagera Sugar
71%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
57%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
19%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
34%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
60%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
23%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
60%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.08 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
43%
level
29%
Kagera Sugar scores more
28%

Mtibwa Sugar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
A. Iddy
90'
O. Daga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mtibwa Sugar 0 – 2 Kagera Sugar

Kagera Sugar beat Mtibwa Sugar 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 19, 2023.

Goals: A. Iddy (30'), O. Daga (90').

The match was played at Manungu Stadium in Turiani.