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Kagera Sugar vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
0 – 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
3/13/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 21Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kagera Sugar47%
×Draw30%
Mtibwa Sugar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.24
Mtibwa Sugar
0.78

Kagera Sugar creates 59% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
Mtibwa Sugar
0.63

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
Mtibwa Sugar
1.51

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
77%
Kagera Sugar or Mtibwa Sugar
70%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
53%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
21%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
71%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
35%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
13%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
54%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
18%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
67%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.51 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.63 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
47%
level
30%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
23%

Kagera Sugar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagera Sugar vs Mtibwa Sugar

Kagera Sugar and Mtibwa Sugar drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.